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LED-focused firms have terrific growth prospects, but also face long-term risks. Perhaps the biggest push for LEDs could come from public policy and broad consumer awareness surrounding "green" products. The first big step has come from several governmental bans of incandescent bulbs in Europe, Australia, and the U.S. over the next decade. LEDs should emerge as the most practical lighting alternative, especially for those that recognize that swallowing the high up-front costs for LEDs will be rewarded in the long-run in the form of longer bulb lives and lower energy costs. Commercial LED adoption in office and retail lighting should come first; Philips estimates that these segments make up about 40% of the total lighting market. However, residential LED adoption could take some time. Beyond the high cost of the bulbs, LED marketers will have to find a way to navigate around the hundred-plus years of consumer behavior where people are ingrained to buy cheap light bulbs and toss them away once they burn out.