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LED Lighting Adoption and Global Outlook for LED, Fluorescent, Halogen, and HID Lamps and Luminaires in Commercial Buildings: Market Analysis and Forecasts by Navigant Research

The market for commercial lighting is on the verge of a major transformation. Falling prices and improving quality for light-emitting diode (LED) lighting has begun to drive widespread adoption of this technology. The speed of this transformation promises to be faster than previous transformations to new lamp types, as this one technology appears likely to surpass all others in nearly every metric of quality and efficiency.

Revenue from LED sales, however, will not be enough to keep the big lighting companies afloat. Due to the much longer lifespan of LED lamps, Navigant Research (formerly Pike Research) forecasts that overall revenue from lamp sales will actually decrease in the coming decade, even as a greater portion of sales goes to more expensive lamp types. To avoid this inevitable decline, companies are broadening their offerings to include lighting controls and lighting services. Navigant Research forecasts that revenue from LED lamp sales will rise to $8.7 billion by 2021, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.2%. Overall, however, revenue from lamp sales will stay essentially flat through 2017 before beginning a steady decline. Revenues from all LED lighting products in commercial building markets are projected to grow from $2.7 billion in 2013 to more than $25 billion in 2021.

In the coming years, LED prices are expected to fall to a point where savings from electricity consumption will provide a short payback period that will encourage consumer adoption en masse, according to the report. This shift will be most dramatic in the share of lamps sold for retrofit projects, where older lighting is often replaced specifically to improve efficiency. Although Navigant Research forecasts that only 5 percent of lamps sold to retrofit projects worldwide in 2013 will be LED-based, that share is expected to grow to 40 percent by 2017 and 63 percent by 2021.

This Navigant Research (formerly Pike) report examines the worldwide market for energy-efficient lighting in commercial buildings, including LED, fluorescent, halogen, and high-intensity discharge lamps and luminaires. The report details the market drivers for these technologies, including electricity costs, green building certifications, and improved controls, as well as the remaining barriers to adoption. Profiles of leading industry players are provided, along with global forecasts for unit shipments and revenue through 2021, segmented by region and by lamp type.

Key Questions Addressed:

  • What are the key drivers encouraging the rapid adoption of LED lighting?
  • How are established and startup lighting companies positioning themselves for success in this changing market?
  • How will the installed base of lighting in commercial buildings shift over the coming decade?
  • What factors influence lighting decisions in different commercial building types and different regions of the world?
  • Which countries have laws and regulations that encourage the use of energy-efficient lighting?
  • What is the outlook for lamps and luminaires in each world geographic region?
  • What technology trends may impact the future of the lighting market?